Nitish Kumar’s political game will go down in Bihar history. The prime minister, who was sworn in for the top job for the eighth time on Wednesday, quit the Bharatiya Janata Party and re-entered the Mahagathbandhan. But who has benefited most from this political turmoil in Bihar? It is Tejashwi Yadav of RJD, according to an opinion poll conducted by C-Voter.
When Janata Dal (United) severed ties with the NDA in Bihar, questions about the ramifications of such a decision, the choice of the next prime minister, and Tejashwi Yadav’s decision to unite ties with Nitish Kumar were on everyone’s mind. . India Today conducted a survey in association with C-Voter in Bihar to find answers to the above questions.
TEJASHWI YADAV AHEAD IN POPULARITY POLLS
The most important question in the survey was about the choice of the next prime minister. Tejashwi Yadav ranked ahead of Nitish Kumar or any BJP leader as the popular choice for Bihar CM.
Although Tejashwi Yadav was sworn in as deputy prime minister in the Nitish Kumar-led government, 43 percent of those polled in C-Voter opinion polls favored the RJD leader as Bihar’s next chief minister. By comparison, Nitish Kumar was the first choice at CM for just 24 percent of those surveyed. Meanwhile, 19 percent chose a BJP leader like Bihar CM.
The rise in popularity of Tejashwi and the corresponding drop in popularity of Nitish Kumar is perhaps a warning sign for the Bihar CM.
WHO IS THE FIRST CHOICE FOR WOMEN VOTER?
Here again, Tejashwi Yadav took the apparent lead. The popularity of the RJD leader has seen a jump in all sectors of society. In the poll, 41.8 percent of the men chose Tejashwi Yadav for the CM position, while 23.8 percent of the votes went to the Nitish account. The BJP managed to get 19.6 percent of the vote.
Nitish Kumar also witnessed a decline in popularity among women, the community that supported him in 2020.
According to the survey, 44 per cent of women considered Tejashwi as their first choice as a Bihar CM, while only 23.3 per cent of women chose Nitish Kumar. The Bharatiya Janata Party again came in third, managing to get just 17.5 percent.
WHAT ABOUT OBC, MUSLIM COMMUNITY?
Looking at popularity by caste, here too Tejashwi Yadav seems to be ahead of Nitish Kumar. In the OBC category, 44.6% of people favored Tejashwi Yadav, while Nitish Kumar got 24.7 votes and a BJP CM got approval from 12.4% of those polled.
Tejashwi Yadav was also openly favored by the Muslim community. Currently, 54 percent of Muslims consider Tejashwi Yadav to be a better CM, and only 30 percent favor Nitish Kumar. The saffron party is far behind in the race, with just 3.3 percent voting for a Bihar CM.
IF THE SURVEYS WERE CONDUCTED NOW
Tejashwi Yadav is clearly ahead in the popularity race as a Bihar CM. But what about alliances? Where are they in public popularity?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Bihar voted fiercely for the NDA, with the alliance winning 54 percent of the vote. But in August 2022, this figure has dropped to 41 percent. Three years from now, the NDA is experiencing a 13 percent loss.
On the other hand, Mahagatbandhan is directly taking advantage of the damage that has been dealt to the NDA. the Mahagatbandhan won 31 percent of the vote in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But now that the equations have changed on the ground, the Mahagathbandhan seems to be benefiting from it too. The alliance witnessed a 16 per cent jump, with 46 per cent of the vote now in its favour.
When we look at this percentage of votes based on seats, the NDA tally may drop to 14, according to an opinion poll by C-Voter. This could prove to be a major setback for the party as it had won 39 seats in 2019. But with Nitish Kumar jumping ships, the NDA is now suffering a loss.
Nitish Kumar’s union with the RJD and Congress appears to have changed the fortunes of the grand alliance. And the changes are also being reflected on the ground.
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